000			03196nam a2200397 a 4500
001			36411
003			BD-DhAAL
005			20230723164425.0
008			191021t2010 nyua b 001 0 eng d
020			_a9780679604181 (electronic bk.)
020			_a0679604189 (electronic bk.)
020			_a9780812973815 (pbk.)
020			_z081297381X (pbk.)
035			_a(OCoLC)669825808
035			_a(POOF1)32816
035			_a8869811
040			_aTEFOD _cTEFOD _dOCLCQ _dOCLCA _dN$T _dRBN _dNIC _dBD-DhAAL
082	0	4	_a003.54 _222
100	1		_aTaleb, Nassim Nicholas, _d1960- _936298
245	1	4	_aThe black swan : _bthe impact of the highly improbable / _cNassim Nicholas Taleb.
250			_aSecond edition, Random trade pbk. edition
260			_aNew York : _bRandom House Trade Paperbacks, _cc2010.
300			_axxxiii, 444 pages : _billustrations ; _c20 cm.
500			_a"Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States ... by Random House in 2007."-T.p. verso.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (pages [401]-429) and index.
505	0		_aPrologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible.
506			_aAccess is restricted to licensed institutions.
520			_aExamines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
526			_aBBS
650		0	_aUncertainty (Information theory) _xSocial aspects. _936299
650		0	_aCorporate Finance. _936300
650		0	_aForecasting. _936301
852			_aAyesha Abed Library _cGeneral Stacks
942			_2ddc _cBK
999			_c41519 _d41519