04404nam a2200397 i 4500 34328 BD-DhAAL 20211110164952.0 190321t2019 flua b 001 0 eng 40455 40455 2018009541 9781138035119 (hardback : alk. paper) 1138035114 (hardback : alk. paper) 9781315269405 (e-book) DLC eng DLC rda DLC BD-DhAAL pcc QA279.5 .F46 2019 519.542 23 Fenton, Norman E., 1956- author. 30348 Risk assessment and decision analysis with bayesian networks / Norman Fenton and Martin Neil. Second edition. Boca Raton, FL : CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, c2019 xxi, 637 pages : illustrations ; 26 cm. "A Chapman & Hall book." Includes bibliographical references and index. Cover; Half Title; Title Page; Copyright Page; Dedication; Contents; Foreword; Preface; Acknowledgments; Authors; Chapter 1: Introduction; Chapter 2: Debunking Bad Statistics; 2.1 Predicting Economic Growth: The Normal Distribution and Its Limitations; 2.2 Patterns and Randomness: From School League Tables to Siegfried and Roy; 2.3 Dubious Relationships: Why You Should Be Very Wary of Correlations and Their Significance Values; 2.4 Spurious Correlations: How You Can Always Find a Silly "Cause" of Exam Success; 2.5 The Danger of Regression: Looking Back When You Need to Look Forward 2.6 The Danger of Averages2.6.1 What Type of Average?; 2.6.2 When Averages Alone Will Never Be Sufficient for Decision Making; 2.7 When Simpson's Paradox Becomes More Worrisome; 2.8 How We Measure Risk Can Dramatically Change Our Perception of Risk; 2.9 Why Relying on Data Alone Is Insufficient for Risk Assessment; 2.10 Uncertain Information and Incomplete Information: Do Not Assume They Are Different; 2.11 Do Not Trust Anybody (Even Experts) to Properly Reason about Probabilities; 2.12 Chapter Summary; Further Reading; Chapter 3: The Need for Causal, Explanatory Models in Risk Assessment 3.1 Introduction3.2 Are You More Likely to Die in an Automobile Crash When the Weather Is Good Compared to Bad?; 3.3 When Ideology and Causation Collide; 3.4 The Limitations of Common Approaches to Risk Assessment; 3.4.1 Measuring Armageddon and Other Risks; 3.4.2 Risks and Opportunities; 3.4.3 Risk Registers and Heat Maps; 3.5 Thinking about Risk Using Causal Analysis; 3.6 Applying the Causal Framework to Armageddon; 3.7 Decisions and Utilities; 3.8 Summary; Further Reading; Chapter 4: Measuring Uncertainty: The Inevitability of Subjectivity; 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Experiments, Outcomes, and Events4.2.1 Multiple Experiments; 4.2.2 Joint Experiments; 4.2.3 Joint Events and Marginalization; 4.3 Frequentist versus Subjective View of Uncertainty; 4.4 Summary; Further Reading; Chapter 5: The Basics of Probability; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Some Observations Leading to Axioms and Theorems of Probability; 5.3 Probability Distributions; 5.3.1 Probability Distributions with Infinite Outcomes; 5.3.2 Joint Probability Distributions and Probability of Marginalized Events; 5.3.3 Dealing with More than Two Variables; 5.4 Independent Events and Conditional Probability 5.5 Binomial Distribution5.6 Using Simple Probability Theory to Solve Earlier Problems and Explain Widespread Misunderstandings; 5.6.1 The Birthday Problem; 5.6.2 The Monty Hall Problem; 5.6.3 When Incredible Events Are Really Mundane; 5.6.4 When Mundane Events Really Are Quite Incredible; 5.7 Summary; Further Reading; Chapter 6: Bayes' Theorem and Conditional Probability; 6.1 Introduction; 6.2 All Probabilities Are Conditional; 6.3 Bayes' Theorem; 6.4 Using Bayes' Theorem to Debunk Some Probability Fallacies; 6.4.1 Traditional Statistical Hypothesis Testing CSE Parama 34328 Bayesian statistical decision theory. 30349 Decision making. 30350 Risk management. 30351 Computer science. 42496 Neil, Martin (Martin D.), author. 30352 Ayesha Abed Library General Stacks ddc BK 0 0 ddc 0 519_542000000000000_FEN 0 65087 BRACUL BRACUL GEN 2019-02-26 Parama 3549.29 0 519.542 FEN 3010034328 2019-02-26 1 3549.29 2019-02-26 BK