03611nam a2200421 a 4500 36411 BD-DhAAL 20230723164425.0 191021t2010 nyua b 001 0 eng d 9780679604181 (electronic bk.) 0679604189 (electronic bk.) 9780812973815 (pbk.) 081297381X (pbk.) (OCoLC)669825808 (POOF1)32816 8869811 TEFOD TEFOD OCLCQ OCLCA N$T RBN NIC BD-DhAAL 003.54 22 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 1960- 36298 The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Second edition, Random trade pbk. edition New York : Random House Trade Paperbacks, c2010. xxxiii, 444 pages : illustrations ; 20 cm. "Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States ... by Random House in 2007."-T.p. verso. Includes bibliographical references (pages [401]-429) and index. Prologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible. Access is restricted to licensed institutions. Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random. BBS HYE Trade International Donated by Akbar Ali Khan 36411, 41348 Uncertainty (Information theory) Social aspects. 36299 Corporate Finance. 36300 Forecasting. 36301 Ayesha Abed Library General Stacks ddc BK 41519 41519 0 0 ddc 0 003_540000000000000_TAL 0 66839 BRACUL BRACUL GEN 2019-10-17 Hye Trade International 1144.00 9 121 003.54 TAL 3010036411 2026-05-03 2026-04-06 1 1144.00 2019-10-17 BK 0 0 ddc 0 003_540000000000000_TAL 1 74106 BRACUL BRACUL AAKC 2023-07-23 Donated by Akbar Ali Khan 1144.00 0 003.54 TAL 3010041348 2025-05-12 2 1144.00 2023-07-23 BK