01656cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF000397 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451955866 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Kaminsky, Graciela. Leading Indicators of Currency Crises / Graciela Kaminsky. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1997. 1 online resource (43 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning 'signal' that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 1997/079 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/1997/079/001.1997.issue-079-en.xml IMF e-Library