01643cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF000749 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451857207 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Pattillo, Catherine. Are Currency Crises Predictable? : A Test / Catherine Pattillo, Andrew Berg. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1998. 1 online resource (61 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One model, and our modifications to it, provide useful forecasts, at least compared with a naive benchmark. The head-to-head comparison also sheds light on the economics of currency crises, the nature of the Asian crisis, and issues in the empirical modeling of currency crises. Mode of access: Internet Berg, Andrew. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 1998/154 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/1998/154/001.1998.issue-154-en.xml IMF e-Library