01856cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF001179 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451848045 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Saxena, Sweta. Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia : A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis / Sweta Saxena, Valerie Cerra. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2000. 1 online resource (26 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper investigates whether Indonesia's recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks ('monsoons'), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia's currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea. In particular, the results from a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model (which overcomes some drawbacks of previous methods) show that inclusion of exchange rate pressures from Thailand and Korea in the transition probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. There is also evidence of contagion in the stock market. Mode of access: Internet Cerra, Valerie. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2000/060 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2000/060/001.2000.issue-060-en.xml IMF e-Library