01800cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF001204 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451849981 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Loungani, Prakash. How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts : Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth / Prakash Loungani. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2000. 1 online resource (32 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions? (3) Are forecasts efficient and unbiased? (4) How does private sector performance compare with that of international organizations? (5) Is forecaster discord a reliable predictor of forecast accuracy? Two key results emerge. First, the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished. Second, there is high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2000/077 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2000/077/001.2000.issue-077-en.xml IMF e-Library