01776cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF001355 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451857863 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Nadal De Simone, Francisco. Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models / Francisco Nadal De Simone. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2000. 1 online resource (54 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. The main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target as a regressor are relatively better; the Phillips curve model outperforms the small open economy model in out-of-sample forecasts; and although Box-Jenkins models outperform the two models for short-term out-of-sample forecasts, their superiority deteriorates in longer forecasts. Adding a Markov-switching process to the models does not explain much of the conditional variance of the forecast errors. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2000/162 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2000/162/001.2000.issue-162-en.xml IMF e-Library