01741cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF001422 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451874440 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Brunner, Allan. El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices : Warm Water or Hot Air? / Allan Brunner. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2000. 1 online resource (34 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper examines the historical effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world real commodity prices. A one-standard-deviation positive surprise in ENSO, for example, raises real commodity price inflation about 3-1/2 to 4 percentage points. Moreover, ENSO appears to account for almost 20 percent of commodity price inflation movements over the past several years. ENSO also has some explanatory power for world consumer price inflation and world economic activity, accounting for about 10 to 20 percent of movements in those variables. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2000/203 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2000/203/001.2000.issue-203-en.xml IMF e-Library