01825cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF001475 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451850444 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Sekine, Toshitaka. Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan / Toshitaka Sekine. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2001. 1 online resource (35 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper estimates an inflation function and forecasts one-year ahead inflation for Japan. It finds that (i) markup relationships, excess money and the output gap are particularly relevant long-run determinants for an equilibrium correction model (EqCM) of inflation; (ii) with intercept corrections, one-year ahead inflation forecast performance of the EqCM is good; and (iii) forecast accuracy can be improved by combining forecasts of the EqCM with those made by rival models. The EqCM obtained would serve for structural model-based inflation forecasting. It also highlights the importance of adjustment to a pure model-based forecast by utilizing information of alternative models. The methodology employed is applicable to a wider range of countries including some emerging market economies. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2001/082 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2001/082/001.2001.issue-082-en.xml IMF e-Library