01885cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF001789 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451972238 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Barrionuevo, Jose. A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations : Evidence From the World Economic Outlook and Time Series Models / Jose Barrionuevo. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1992. 1 online resource (34 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 1992/048 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/1992/048/001.1992.issue-048-en.xml IMF e-Library