01883cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF002232 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451875546 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Leigh, Daniel. Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey / Daniel Leigh, Marco Rossi. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2002. 1 online resource (26 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic indicators for inflation and real output growth in Turkey. We find that (i) the forecasting ability of individual indicators is unstable; but that (ii) a suitable combination of these unstable forecasts yields a forecast that reliably outperforms that generated by an autoregressive model. We then propose a two-stage combination forecast obtained by taking the median of the top five performing individual forecasts. This two-stage forecast reliably improves on autoregressive benchmarks and outperforms the combination forecast based on all the individual forecasts. Mode of access: Internet Rossi, Marco. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2002/231 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2002/231/001.2002.issue-231-en.xml IMF e-Library