01603cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF002248 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451843668 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Oka, Chikako. Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems / Chikako Oka. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2003. 1 online resource (35 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2003/018 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2003/018/001.2003.issue-018-en.xml IMF e-Library