01839cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF002257 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451841923 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Ivaschenko, Iryna. How Much Leverage is too Much, or Does Corporate Risk Determine the Severity of a Recession? / Iryna Ivaschenko. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2003. 1 online resource (32 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Economic theory suggests that vulnerable financial conditions of the corporate sector can trigger or worsen an economy-wide recession. This paper proposes a measure of corporate vulnerability, the Corporate Vulnerability Index (CVI) and analyses whether it can explain the probability and severity of recessions. The CVI is constructed as the default probability for the entire corporate sector, using the model of corporate debt by Anderson, Sundaresan, and Tychon (1996). The CVI is shown to be a significant predictor of the probability of a recession 4 to 6 quarters ahead, even controlling for other leading indicators. An increase in the CVI is also associated with an increase in the probability of a more severe and lengthy recession 3 to 6 quarters ahead. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2003/003 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2003/003/001.2003.issue-003-en.xml IMF e-Library