01873cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF002280 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451845136 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Abiad, Abdul. Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach / Abdul Abiad. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2003. 1 online resource (60 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2003/032 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2003/032/001.2003.issue-032-en.xml IMF e-Library