01816cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF002386 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451850222 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Barnhill, Theodore. Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity / Theodore Barnhill, George Kopits. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2003. 1 online resource (34 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of government financial failure stemming from the volatility and comovements of the exchange rate, interest rates, oil prices, and output. Although dollarization has helped attenuate fiscal vulnerability, the volatility of sovereign spreads and of oil prices remain major sources of risk for Ecuador's public sector. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications, an evaluation of the methodology, and suggestions for future research. Mode of access: Internet Kopits, George. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2003/079 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2003/079/001.2003.issue-079-en.xml IMF e-Library