01628cas a2200265 a 4500 AALejournalIMF002882 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451847284 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Berg, Andrew. Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice? / Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein, Catherine Pattillo. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2004. 1 online resource (45 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly. Mode of access: Internet Borensztein, Eduardo. Pattillo, Catherine. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2004/052 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2004/052/001.2004.issue-052-en.xml IMF e-Library