01957cas a2200325 a 4500 AALejournalIMF003058 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451852929 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Miniane, Jacques. Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account / Jacques Miniane, Benoit Mercereau. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2004. 1 online resource (30 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Under near-singularity conditions typically generated by persistence in current account data the predictions of present value models become extremely sensitive to small sample estimation error. Moreover, traditional Wald tests will distort the likelihood that the model is true. Using OECD data we find that: (i) the Wald test often leads to the wrong inference compared to a valid test; (ii) in all cases posterior distributions of the predicted series and associated correlation coefficients and variance ratios are very wide. In particular, one cannot draw any firm conclusion regarding excess current account volatility. Mode of access: Internet Current Account imf Model Evaluation imf Present Value Model imf Variance-Covariance Matrix imf WP imf Canada imf Mercereau, Benoit. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2004/106 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2004/106/001.2004.issue-106-en.xml IMF e-Library