01804cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF003349 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451860610 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Roubini, Nouriel. 'Rules of Thumb' for Sovereign Debt Crises / Nouriel Roubini, Paolo Manasse. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2005. 1 online resource (32 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper contains an empirical investigation of the set of economic and political conditions that are associated with a likely occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Binary Recursive Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help identify the typical characteristics of defaulters. We find that not all crises are equal: they differ depending on whether the government faces insolvency, illiquidity, or various macroeconomic risks. We also characterize the set of fundamentals that can be associated with a relatively "risk free" zone. This classification is important for discussing appropriate policy options to prevent crises and improve response time and prediction. Mode of access: Internet Manasse, Paolo. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2005/042 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2005/042/001.2005.issue-042-en.xml IMF e-Library