01878cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF003370 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451860467 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Smidkova, Katerina. Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries : What Have We Learned from the Forerunners? / Katerina Smidkova, Ales Bulir. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2005. 1 online resource (38 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Estimation and simulation of sustainable real exchange rates in some of the new EU accession countries point to potential difficulties in sustaining the ERM2 regime if entered too soon and with weak policies. According to the estimates, the Czech, Hungarian, and Polish currencies were overvalued in 2003. Simulations, conditional on large-model macroeconomic projections, suggest that under current policies those currencies would be unlikely to stay within the ERM2 stability corridor during 2004-10. In-sample simulations for Greece, Portugal, and Spain indicate both a much smaller misalignment of national currencies prior to ERM2, and a more stable path of real exchange rates over the medium term than can be expected for the new accession countries. Mode of access: Internet Bulir, Ales. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2005/027 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2005/027/001.2005.issue-027-en.xml IMF e-Library