China's Imports : An Empirical Analysis Using Johansen's Cointegration Approach /
In this paper, the behavior of China's imports during the period 1980-92 is studied. The estimation of cointegration and error correction mechanisms enables the separation of the long-run and short-run determinants of imports in China. The estimated cointegrating vector using Johansen's co...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
1994.
|
| Series: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 1994/145 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Full text available on IMF |
| Summary: | In this paper, the behavior of China's imports during the period 1980-92 is studied. The estimation of cointegration and error correction mechanisms enables the separation of the long-run and short-run determinants of imports in China. The estimated cointegrating vector using Johansen's cointegration approach shows that, in the long run, China's imports are sensitive to changes in output, relative prices, and foreign exchange reserves. It also shows that the short-run output elasticity of imports is much greater than that in the long run, suggesting that import substitution may have been an important factor over the sample period. The forecasting ability of a conventional partial adjustment import function is then compared with that of the Johansen cointegration model; the Johansen model is shown to outperform the conventional one in forecasting accuracy. |
|---|---|
| Item Description: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (38 pages) |
| Format: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Access: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |