Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims /

This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a marked...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Gapen, Michael
Other Authors: Gray, Dale, Lim, Cheng, Xiao, Yingbin
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2005.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2005/155
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
Description
Summary:This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a marked-to-market balance sheet for the sovereign, and derive a set of credit-risk indicators that serve as a barometer of sovereign risk. Applications to 12 emerging market economies show the risk indicators to be robust and highly correlated with market spreads. The framework can help policymakers design risk mitigation strategies and rank policy options using a calibrated structural model unique to each economy.
Item Description:<strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required
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Physical Description:1 online resource (49 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Access:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students