01817cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF004539 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451865554 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Tanner, Evan. Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt : A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey / Evan Tanner, Issouf Samake. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2006. 1 online resource (42 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks. Mode of access: Internet Samake, Issouf. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2006/295 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2006/295/001.2006.issue-295-en.xml IMF e-Library