01877cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF004670 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451865592 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Krichene, Noureddine. Recent Dynamics of Crude Oil Prices / Noureddine Krichene. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2006. 1 online resource (28 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students Crude oil prices have been on a run-up spree in recent years. Their dynamics were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, indicating that oil markets were constantly out-of-equilibrium. An explanation of the oil price process in terms of the underlying fundamentals of oil markets and world economy was provided, viewing pressure on oil prices mainly as a result of rigid crude oil supply and an expanding world demand for crude oil. A change in the oil price process parameters would require a change in the underlying fundamentals. Market expectations, extracted from call and put option prices, anticipated no change, in the short term, in the underlying fundamentals. Markets expected oil prices to remain volatile and jumpy, and with higher probabilities, to rise, rather than fall, above the expected mean. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2006/299 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2006/299/001.2006.issue-299-en.xml IMF e-Library