Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources-Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections /

Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources-Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections /

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yi...

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Autore principale: Ghosh, Atish
Altri autori: Goretti, Manuela, Joshi, Bikas, Zalduendo, Juan
Natura: Periodico
Lingua:English
Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2007.
Serie:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2007/070
Accesso online:Full text available on IMF
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100 1 |a Ghosh, Atish. 
245 1 0 |a Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources-Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections /  |c Atish Ghosh, Juan Zalduendo, Manuela Goretti, Bikas Joshi. 
264 1 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2007. 
300 |a 1 online resource (44 pages) 
490 1 |a IMF Working Papers 
500 |a <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
500 |a <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required 
506 |a Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students 
520 3 |a This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results. 
538 |a Mode of access: Internet 
700 1 |a Goretti, Manuela. 
700 1 |a Joshi, Bikas. 
700 1 |a Zalduendo, Juan. 
830 0 |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;  |v No. 2007/070 
856 4 0 |z Full text available on IMF  |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2007/070/001.2007.issue-070-en.xml  |z IMF e-Library 

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