02026cas a2200277 a 4500 AALejournalIMF004850 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451866346 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Ghosh, Atish. Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources-Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections / Atish Ghosh, Juan Zalduendo, Manuela Goretti, Bikas Joshi. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2007. 1 online resource (44 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results. Mode of access: Internet Goretti, Manuela. Joshi, Bikas. Zalduendo, Juan. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2007/070 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2007/070/001.2007.issue-070-en.xml IMF e-Library