01933cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF005029 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451870206 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Romeu, Rafael. Vacation Over : Implications for the Caribbean of Opening U.S.-Cuba Tourism / Rafael Romeu. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2008. 1 online resource (62 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2008/162 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2008/162/001.2008.issue-162-en.xml IMF e-Library