01709cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF005033 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451869583 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Gardner, E. A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon / E. Gardner, Julian Di Giovanni. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2008. 1 online resource (23 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks. Mode of access: Internet Di Giovanni, Julian. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2008/097 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2008/097/001.2008.issue-097-en.xml IMF e-Library