01915cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF005248 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451870459 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Klyuev, Vladimir. What Goes Up Must Come Down? : House Price Dynamics in the United States / Vladimir Klyuev. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2008. 1 online resource (29 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices in the United States and finds that despite recent declines, single-family homes remained 8 to 20 percent overvalued as of the first quarter of 2008. In the short run, the gap between actual and equilibrium prices does not exert powerful influence over price dynamics. Instead, that dynamics is driven by the inventory-to-sales ratio and by foreclosure starts in a highly inertial relationship. Taken together, this implies that price declines are likely to continue, including past the point where overvaluation is eliminated. The paper also finds that from the early 1990s onwards changes in regional home prices have been more synchronized than before, and that the recent movements in the average price index have reflected a nationwide housing boom, followed by a nationwide housing bust. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2008/187 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2008/187/001.2008.issue-187-en.xml IMF e-Library