01682cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF005878 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451872798 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Moriyama, Kenji. Forecasting Inflation in Sudan / Kenji Moriyama, Abdul Naseer. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2009. 1 online resource (25 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained. Mode of access: Internet Naseer, Abdul. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2009/132 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2009/132/001.2009.issue-132-en.xml IMF e-Library