01700cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF006024 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451873344 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Bornhorst, Fabian. How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? : The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA / Fabian Bornhorst. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2009. 1 online resource (35 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2009/187 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2009/187/001.2009.issue-187-en.xml IMF e-Library