01742cas a2200277 a 4500 AALejournalIMF006088 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451873610 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Clinton, Kevin. Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis / Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2009. 1 online resource (23 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist. Mode of access: Internet Chen, Huigang. Johnson, Marianne. Kamenik, Ondrej. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2009/214 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2009/214/001.2009.issue-214-en.xml IMF e-Library