01951cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF006319 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451963380 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Clausen, Jens. Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time : How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US? / Jens Clausen, Bianca Clausen. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010. 1 online resource (21 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time since GDP data is subject to sometimes substantial revisions. In addition to using real-time datasets for the UK and the US, we employ a dataset for real-time German GDP data not used before. We find that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation. Mode of access: Internet Clausen, Bianca. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2010/052 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2010/052/001.2010.issue-052-en.xml IMF e-Library