A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices /
Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset classes. The contributions are twofold: first, on the technical side, the paper propo...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2010.
|
| Series: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
No. 2010/181 |
| Online Access: | Full text available on IMF |
| Summary: | Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset classes. The contributions are twofold: first, on the technical side, the paper proposes useful transformation/restrictions to Bahra's original formulation for achieving economically sensible outcomes. In addition, the paper compares the statistical properties of the estimated RNPs among major asset classes, including commodities, the S and P 500, the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the US 10-year Treasury Note. Finally, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the multi-lognormal approach outperforms the double-lognormal approach. |
|---|---|
| Item Description: | <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (31 pages) |
| Format: | Mode of access: Internet |
| ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
| Access: | Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students |