Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage? /

The literature on leverage until now shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility. This paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility. We s...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Fostel, Ana
Other Authors: Geanakoplos, John
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2010/206
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
Description
Summary:The literature on leverage until now shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility. This paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility. We show that, in a model with endogenous leverage and heterogeneous beliefs, agents have the incentive to invest mostly in technologies that become volatile in bad times. Together with the old literature this explains pro-cyclical leverage. The result also gives rationale to the pattern of volatility smiles observed in the stock options since 1987. Finally, the paper presents for the first time a dynamic model in which an asset is endogenously traded simultaneously at different margin requirements in equilibrium.
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Physical Description:1 online resource (35 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Access:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students