02275cas a2200265 a 4500 AALejournalIMF007262 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781455269471 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL David, Antonio. Post-Conflict Recovery : Institutions, Aid, or Luck? / Antonio David, Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos, Marshall Mills. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2011. 1 online resource (33 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors ("luck") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification. Mode of access: Internet Mills, Marshall. Rodrigues Bastos, Fabiano. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2011/149 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2011/149/001.2011.issue-149-en.xml IMF e-Library