01829cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF007342 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451853544 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Otker, Inci. Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises : The Mexican Experience / Inci Otker, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1995. 1 online resource (38 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period. Mode of access: Internet Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 1995/112 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/1995/112/001.1995.issue-112-en.xml IMF e-Library