01694cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF007955 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451853216 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Iacoviello, Matteo. Short-Term Forecasting : Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead / Matteo Iacoviello. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2001. 1 online resource (23 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper presents a "bridge model" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the "bridge" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2001/109 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2001/109/001.2001.issue-109-en.xml IMF e-Library