01951cas a2200265 a 4500 AALejournalIMF008734 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451860214 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Danninger, Stephan. The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries / Stephan Danninger, Annette Kyobe, M. Cangiano. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2005. 1 online resource (31 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting interference through government corruption. The data broadly supports the model, and the results are robust to alternative explanations. The paper also constructs three indices-transparency, formality, and organizational simplicity-that characterize revenue-forecasting practices, and assesses their effectiveness in producing an upfront-that is, timely-budget envelope. More transparent and simple forecasting processes lead to early budget constraints, while formality has no measurable effect. Mode of access: Internet Cangiano, M. Kyobe, Annette. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2005/002 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2005/002/001.2005.issue-002-en.xml IMF e-Library