01740cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF008822 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451861242 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL International Monetary Fund. Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2005. 1 online resource (37 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less suited to capturing turning points. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model illustrates how monetary developments can be described by a Phillips-curve type relationship. We deal with potential parameter instability on account of fundamental changes in Pakistan's economic system by restricting our sample to more recent observations. Gregorian and Islamic calendar seasonality are addressed by using 12-month moving averages. Mode of access: Internet IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2005/105 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2005/105/001.2005.issue-105-en.xml IMF e-Library