01769cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF009445 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451867404 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Zettelmeyer, Jeromin. The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America / Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Par Osterholm. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2007. 1 online resource (36 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors. The model is estimated on quarterly data from 1994 to 2006 on key external and Latin American variables. It finds that 50 to 60 percent of the variation in Latin American GDP growth is accounted for by external shocks. Conditional forecasts for a variety of external scenarios suggest that Latin American growth is robust to moderate declines in commodity prices and U.S. or world growth, but sensitive to more extreme shocks, particularly a combined external slowdown and tightening of world financial conditions. Mode of access: Internet Osterholm, Par. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2007/176 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2007/176/001.2007.issue-176-en.xml IMF e-Library