01884cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF009854 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451869088 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Osterholm, Par. External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia : Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model / Par Osterholm, Lisandro Abrego. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2008. 1 online resource (24 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surroundingmacroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-statepriors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variancedecomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most importantfactors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 percent of the variance in Colombian GDP growthrespectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out-of-sample, can also be used toanalyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we showthat the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growthwould be non-negligible but still a mild decline by historical standards. Mode of access: Internet Abrego, Lisandro. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2008/046 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2008/046/001.2008.issue-046-en.xml IMF e-Library