01812cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF009879 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781451869385 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Osterholm, Par. Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? : Evidence from Bayesian VARs / Par Osterholm, Helge Berger. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2008. 1 online resource (17 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This holds for a long forecasting sample 1960-2005, as well for more recent subperiods, including the Volcker and Greenspan eras. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and tends to be smaller in recent subperiods, in particular in models that also include information on real GDP growth and interest rates. Mode of access: Internet Berger, Helge. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2008/076 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2008/076/001.2008.issue-076-en.xml IMF e-Library