01600cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF010611 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 15.00 USD 9781451974201 1020-7635 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1999. 1 online resource (148 pages) IMF Staff Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited. Mode of access: Internet IMF Staff Papers; IMF Staff Papers ; No. 1999/002 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/024/1999/002/024.1999.issue-002-en.xml IMF e-Library