01632cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF010614 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 15.00 USD 9781451974515 1020-7635 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 1. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1998. 1 online resource (216 pages) IMF Staff Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper analyzes some leading indicators of currency crises, and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning 'signal' that a currency crisis may take place. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, and the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices. Mode of access: Internet IMF Staff Papers; IMF Staff Papers ; No. 1998/004 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/024/1998/004/024.1998.issue-004-en.xml IMF e-Library