Money As Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest /

The natural interest rate is of great relevance to central banks, but it is difficult to measure. We show that in a standard microfounded monetary model, the natural interest rate co-moves with a transformation of the money demand that can be computed from actual data. The co-movement is of a consid...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Berger, Helge
Other Authors: Weber, Henning
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2012/006
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
Description
Summary:The natural interest rate is of great relevance to central banks, but it is difficult to measure. We show that in a standard microfounded monetary model, the natural interest rate co-moves with a transformation of the money demand that can be computed from actual data. The co-movement is of a considerable magnitude and independent of monetary policy. An optimizing central bank that does not observe the natural interest rate can take advantage of this co-movement by incorporating the transformed money demand, in addition to the observed output gap and inflation, into a simple but optimal interest rate rule. Combining the transformed money demand and the observed output gap provides the best information about the natural interest rate.
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Physical Description:1 online resource (52 pages)
Format:Mode of access: Internet
ISSN:1018-5941
Access:Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students