02119cas a2200241 a 4500 AALejournalIMF012632 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 15.00 USD 9781589060975 1020-7635 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Flood, Robert. IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 1 / Robert Flood. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2002. 1 online resource (164 pages) IMF Staff Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students This paper presents details of a symposium on forecasting performance I organized under the auspices of the IMF Staff Papers. The assumption that the forecaster's goal is to do as well as possible in predicting the actual outcome is sometimes questionable. ln the context of private sector forecasts, this is because the incentives for forecasters may induce them to herd rather than to reveal their true forecasts. Public sector forecasts may also be distorted, although for different reasons. Forecasts associated with IMF programs, for example, are often the result of negotiations between the IMF staff and the country authorities and are perhaps more accurately viewed as goals, or targets, rather than pure forecasts. The standard theory of time series forecasting involves a variety of components including the choice of an information set, the choice of a cost function, and the evaluation of forecasts in terms of the average costs of the forecast errors. It is generally acknowledged that by including more relevant information in the information set, one should be able to produce better forecasts. Mode of access: Internet IMF Staff Papers; IMF Staff Papers ; No. 2002/002 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/024/2002/002/024.2002.issue-002-en.xml IMF e-Library