02183cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF013339 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781475548242 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Das, Mitali. Chronicle of a Decline Foretold : Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das, Papa N'Diaye. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013. 1 online resource (21 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios-with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity-may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor. Mode of access: Internet N'Diaye, Papa. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/026 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/026/001.2013.issue-026-en.xml IMF e-Library