Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts : Evidence from a Large International Panel /

We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) f...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Dovern, Jonas
Other Authors: Fritsche, Ulrich, Loungani, Prakash, Tamirisa, Natalia
Format: Journal
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013.
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/056
Subjects:
Online Access:Full text available on IMF
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245 1 0 |a Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts :   |b Evidence from a Large International Panel /  |c Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani, Natalia Tamirisa. 
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520 3 |a We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution. 
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700 1 |a Fritsche, Ulrich. 
700 1 |a Loungani, Prakash. 
700 1 |a Tamirisa, Natalia. 
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