02240cas a2200253 a 4500 AALejournalIMF013560 230101c9999 xx r poo 0 0eng d 5.00 USD 9781484315910 1018-5941 BD-DhAAL BD-DhAAL Catao, Luis. External Liabilities and Crises / Luis Catao, Gian Milesi-Ferretti. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013. 1 online resource (37 pages) IMF Working Papers <strong>Off-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required <strong>On-Campus Access:</strong> No User ID or Password Required Electronic access restricted to authorized BRAC University faculty, staff and students We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities (NFL) to GDP is a significant crisis predictor, and the more so when it exceeds 50 percent in absolute terms and 20 percent of the country-specific historical mean. This is primarily due to net external debt--the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem if anything an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction; ii) the current account is a powerful predictor, either measured unconditionally or as deviations from conventionally estimated 'norms' iii) foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings; iv) a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in- and out-of-sample. The latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises stricto sensu. Mode of access: Internet Milesi-Ferretti, Gian. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/113 Full text available on IMF http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/113/001.2013.issue-113-en.xml IMF e-Library